First published in Eurasia Review, 1 January 2026
 

The first twenty-five years of the twenty-first century have been turbulent and unforgiving. Conflict, instability, and social strain have become continuing features of international life. As the world enters 2026, the burdens left behind by the past two decades show little sign of lifting. The familiar label of a “post–Cold War” era no longer explains the political world we inhabit. Instead of convergence and calm, the international system has moved toward disintegration and rivalry. As the late scholar Hedley Bull once warned, “the idea of order without power is an illusion.” Recent events have laid bare that illusion, exposing the weakness of a global order once assumed to be stable, peaceful, and interconnected.

In recent years, crises have arrived almost simultaneously. Wars have erupted across regions. A global pandemic swept through societies. Climate patterns turned increasingly dangerous. Within many countries, social tensions hardened into conflict along racial and religious lines. At the same time, the global economy fumbled, struggling to find stability. All together, these pressures have left nations strained and exhausted. However, even amid this turbulence, new technologies and innovations have offered faint but persistent signs of hope.

The meaning of “security” has undergone a profound shift. Once, it was defined largely by borders and soldiers. Today, it reaches far beyond the battlefield. Security now includes public health, clean air and water, and the protection of digital spaces from cyber threats. These dimensions are as critical as military strength. At the same time, the ways nations communicate, cooperate, and share information are rapidly changing. These new modes of interaction will create fresh opportunities, even as they pose serious challenges in the years ahead.

The Death of Global Friendship

For several decades, globalisation was promoted as a unifying economic and political project, premised on expanding markets, free trade, and international cooperation. That optimism has now significantly wrinkled. While diplomatic rhetoric continues to emphasise partnership and mutual interest, strategic distrust increasingly affects relations among states. Levels of confidence between nations appear to be at a historic low. Rather than marking a renewed beginning, the transition into 2026 finds the international system characterised by heightened risk, uncertainty, and instability.

Many observers argue that the international system is entering a phase often described as a return to “realist” politics. In this view, states are increasingly discarding the language of global norms and shared rules in favour of narrowly defined national interests. Such a shift is steadily undermining the institutional and normative frameworks that once provided a degree of order to international affairs. The most serious casualty of this transformation is ethics and international morality. When states privilege self-interest above all else, commitments to fairness, restraint, and collective responsibility tend to disappear, weakening the rules intended to safeguard the global commons.

Donald Trump’s return to power has marked a major shift in the conduct of U.S. economic policy. His administration has prioritised the protection of domestic industries through restrictive trade measures, indicating a turn toward a form of neo-protectionism. This departure from long-standing commitments to trade liberalisation has disrupted established patterns of global commerce. More broadly, it reflects deeper structural strains within the contemporary capitalist monetary and trading system, suggesting that the existing global economic order is entering a period of instability.

The Fight Over Money and the Dollar

In 2025, a massive shift happened in the financial world. This shift is called ‘de-dollarization.’ For decades, almost everyone used the American dollar to buy and sell things across borders. Now, countries like India, China, Russia, and Brazil are trying to stop relying on the dollar. They are worried because America uses its currency like a weapon. If America is angry with a country, it can block that country from using dollars.
Because of this fear, many developing nations want to use their own local currency for trade. By the time we reach 2026, the world will likely use many different currencies instead of just one. However, the Trump administration will probably try to stop this from happening. This will put countries like India in a very difficult spot. India will feel a lot of pressure to choose between its own goals and its relationship with America.

Conflicts in the Middle East and Beyond

The Middle East and South Asia have become the most sensitive regions of the world. The war that started in Gaza after the Hamas attacks has caused a terrible loss of human life. The effects of this violence will last for many years. Experts worry that terror groups who use violence will use this anger to plan new attacks. The fighting between Israel and Iran is also a major problem. These two powerful nations are in a serious struggle. Their conflict makes the whole region feel unsafe. Even the peaceful parts of the Middle East are seeing new troubles. For example, the friendship between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is starting to break.

These two countries disagree about what should happen in Yemen. The UAE supports groups that want to split Yemen into smaller parts. Saudi Arabia wants Yemen to stay as one single country. This disagreement has led to political and military arguments. They are also competing for power in Africa, specifically in Sudan. Both countries want to control gold mines and important trade paths there. They are supporting different fighting groups in Sudan, which makes the peace process very hard. 

In the Middle East, some countries are trying to change their future. Places like the Gulf nations are trying to find new ways to make money besides selling oil. They are investing in tourism and new technology. People hope that this focus on business will bring a short period of calm to the region.

The Long War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is now entering its fourth year. Efforts to find peace have stopped moving forward. Russia shows no signs of wanting to give up the land it took. For a while, the war seemed to slow down because Western countries sent fewer weapons. However, the fighting has started up again with fresh attacks. Millions of people had to leave their homes in Ukraine. These families are still living in other countries and do not know when they can go back. This war has taught the world a hard lesson. Fighting is extremely expensive. Some leaders hope that the high cost of war will eventually force countries to talk about peace. 

The Battle for Earth’s Resources

In the future, countries will fight over basic needs. There will be intense competition for food and clean water. Nations will also struggle to control the special minerals needed to build phones and computers. At the same time, the changing climate is forcing people to move. When the land becomes too dry or too flooded, people have to leave. This movement of people is creating a ‘migration crisis.’ Many countries are building stronger walls and making their borders very strict. They do not want more people coming in. Some nations are following the example of the Trump administration by being very tough on outsiders.

International institutions like the World Trade Organization are becoming very weak. Instead of following global rules, powerful countries are making up their own rules. America is trying to be the “world’s policeman’ again, but with a twist. The new policy is that America will only protect those who pay for it. This has made groups like NATO very worried. In Latin America, America is also trying to exert more control over its neighbours.

The Rise of China and Russia

As America pulls back from some parts of the world, China is moving in. China wants to fill the empty space left by the United States. They are building a new group of allies by helping developing countries with money and projects. Western leaders are very concerned about this new economic team led by China.  Russia is also changing its focus. It is trying to become a major power in the East by becoming closer to Asian countries. Russia is moving away from the West in many areas. Instead of using just soldiers, Russia is focusing on cyber warfare, according to some observers.

India’s Difficult Path

India is gradually emerging as an important factor in the global system, with growing economic weight, strategic reach, and diplomatic visibility. At the same time, its immediate neighbourhood continues to present serious and persistent challenges. Political instability in Pakistan and Bangladesh, combined with broader regional uncertainties, generates significant security, economic, and humanitarian concerns for New Delhi. These conditions place sustained pressure on India’s foreign and security policy, requiring constant attention to its regional environment even as it seeks a larger global role.

At the international level, India is pursuing a complex diplomatic strategy aimed at maintaining productive relations with both the United States and Russia. This balancing act reflects India’s reluctance to be drawn into rigid alliance structures or binary geopolitical camps. While this posture has historical roots in the doctrine of non-alignment, the contemporary international context differs markedly from the Cold War environment in which that framework was developed. Today’s world is characterised by fluid power rivalries, economic interdependence, and overlying crises. As a result, India, like many other countries of the Global South, finds itself moving in a far more difficult strategic environment, where flexibility and continuous reassessment have become indispensable for safeguarding national interests and strategic decision making.